Could We Mitigate Super El Niños by Artificially Changing the Climate? A New Study Indicates Yes

Researchers used computer models to see what would have happened had scientists caused marine cloud brightening in the face of strong past El Niños

July 9, 2026 2:17 p.m.

a visual of the Earth with a bright red stripe — Earth is currently experiencing an occurrence of the El Niño climate pattern. NASA via University of California, San Diego

Manipulating Earth’s weather to fix problems might seem like an idea straight out of science fiction and, indeed, could have unintended consequences.

Nevertheless, the authors of a study published yesterday in Science Advances argue that a particular type of geoengineering called marine cloud brightening should be taken seriously in the face of a recurring climate phenomenon called “El Niño.” The approach would be controversial, but computer models indicate its potential to mitigate El Niño’s destructive effects, according to the study.

El Niño and La Niña are two opposite, far-reaching climate phenomena that take place in the Pacific Ocean on average every two to seven years, usually for around 9 to 12 months. El Niño usually brings about more extreme weather patterns and raises Earth’s temperatures. Given the shocking heat wave recently seen in Europe, it might not be surprising to learn that we are at the beginning of the most recent El Niño event, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which made the announcement about a month ago. What’s more, it’s being described as a “super” El Niño.

Intentional marine cloud brightening involves putting particular aerosols into low clouds over water to make them more reflective, also called increasing their albedo, the percentage of sunlight reflected by a surface, which would allow less sunlight to reach the ocean. Earlier research revealed that smoke emitted by Australian bushfires in 2019 and 2020 brightened clouds in the southeast Pacific Ocean and seemed to help produce global weather patterns resembling La Niña—essentially El Niño’s opposite climate pattern.

In the wake of this revelation, scientists from the recent study used a computer model to see what would have happened if humans had deliberately caused marine cloud brightening in the southeast Pacific during strong El Niños in 1997 and 2015. Crucially, the simulation indicated that the sooner the employment of cloud brightening technology, the more effective the mitigation of the super El Niño consequences.

“We were able to turn what was an extreme or super El Niño into a neutral event, so it wasn’t even an El Niño anymore at that point,” Jessica Wan, lead author of the study and a postdoctoral researcher at the University of Chicago’s Climate Systems Engineering initiative, tells Gizmodo’s Ellyn Lapointe.

Did you know? The history of El Niño

The weather phenomenon supposedly originates from a term used by Peruvian fisherman.
They occur every two to seven years, with scientists using ocean temperature records dating back to the 1800s to track their frequency.
The earliest recorded El Niño may date back to the late-16th century when a Spanish surveyor observed an abrupt change in weather patterns.
The term "super El Niño" only dates back to 2003 when it was used by Australian researchers.

Geoengineering could have serious and unexpected consequences, potentially solving one problem but causing something much worse. Kate Ricke, a climate scientist at the University of California, San Diego, and co-author of the study, is typically cautious when it comes to these interventions, but sees the benefits as worth the potential costs.

“One of the biggest social concerns around geoengineering is the fact that if we use it to reduce long-term climate risks, we have to deploy it continuously for an indefinite period of time,” Wan explains in a statement. “If we could target natural variability, we could get some of the benefits of geoengineering without having to employ it indefinitely.”

Daniele Visioni, a climate scientist at Cornell University who did not participate in the study, seems impressed by the findings. Employing the geoengineering strategy against strong El Niños “is really interesting and very new,” he tells Science News’ Carolyn Gramling. “The fact that it looks like this could work is a really good indication that it is something worth thinking about.”

“Thinking about” is key here, as it doesn’t seem like the theory is anywhere near real-world tests. There are “many, many unanswered questions and uncertainties as to the viability of marine cloud brightening” in the context of managing the approach’s cooling results, James Haywood, a researcher at the University of Exeter who did not participate in the study, tells CNN’s Laura Paddison. In a separate interview with CNN, David Keith, a geophysicist at the University of Chicago, said that while the study's proof-of-concept is technically possible, “the technology simply doesn’t exist.”

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