Could 2026 Be a Year With No Atlantic Hurricanes? We’ve Surprisingly Passed Their Peak Month Without Any, Thanks to the El Niño

Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November, and the last time one passed by without an intense cyclone was more than 100 years ago. While the ongoing “super” El Niño seems to be suppressing storms in the Atlantic, the Pacific Ocean is being overactive

Sara Hashemi | Daily Correspondent

October 6, 2026 10:00 a.m.

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Hurricanes usually wreak havoc in the Atlantic Ocean from June through November. But four months into this year’s season, we haven’t seen a storm escalate into a hurricane—and may not at all. That’s likely thanks to the “super” El Niño, which seems to be suppressing cyclones in the Atlantic while fueling them in the Pacific Ocean.

“No hurricanes through September is unprecedented in the modern record, and it’s a little surreal to look at the maps every day this month and see the deep tropics basically shut off,” says Michael Lowry, a meteorologist and hurricane specialist with WPLG-TV, to Andrea Thompson at Scientific American.

A hurricane-free September is surprising because the 10th of the month is statistically the peak of Atlantic hurricane season. This marks the first time in more than 30 years that the month has passed without one of these powerful storms. According to modern records stretching back to 1950, they have occurred only in 1994, 1972 and 1962, Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane expert at Colorado State University, tells Chris Dolce at CNN.

In recent decades, each Atlantic hurricane season has averaged seven of these storms. Just two documented seasons—1914 and 1907—went by without any. However, experts note that early weather records are unreliable given the lack of monitoring via satellites or aircraft at the time. Weather watchers could have missed hurricanes in more remote parts of the ocean.

So, what does the growing El Niño have to do with all of this?

“We are headed toward what will almost certainly be the strongest El Niño on record,” explains Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami, to Ava Berger at NPR. “It has exceeded expectations” in both the Pacific and the Atlantic oceans.

The natural, cyclical climate pattern warms ocean waters in the Pacific, which in turn impacts the global climate in myriad ways. In the North Atlantic, it typically increases wind shear—changes in wind speed or direction in the atmosphere. These winds rip apart storms, stopping them from growing into hurricanes. Since this summer, the shear has been record-strong over parts of the Atlantic where hurricanes often form, Klotzbach tells CNN.

At the same time, warmer ocean surface temperatures in the Pacific allow more hurricanes to form there. The elevated water temperature heats the air above it, fueling more of these cyclones, writes meteorologist Matthew Cappucci for the Washington Post. As of October 1, the Pacific has experienced 20 named storms, including three hurricanes classified as Category 5—the most intense kind, with wind speeds of at least 157 miles per hour, per CNN. One of them, Hurricane Polo, had one of the fastest intensifications on record in the eastern Pacific, going from tropical storm to Category 5 hurricane within 24 hours on September 22.

Threats could still emerge in the Atlantic Ocean, though, since October is historically a busy month for hurricane landfalls in Florida, writes meteorologist John Morales for NBC6. “I can’t rule out a window of a few days in which these hostile conditions for hurricanes will abate.”

What’s more, the lack of hurricanes doesn’t mean a lack of tropical storms. These can also be destructive, especially as climate change makes cyclones wetter and more destructive. In September, Tropical Storm Fay came close to becoming the season’s first hurricane, writes Lowry on his Substack, but just missed the wind speed threshold for a hurricane. Its status might still get bumped up during a future review by the National Hurricane Center, per Scientific American.

With two months left until the end of hurricane season, there’s still time for one of these windy, watery events to emerge. “Don’t tune out. Stay informed,” Morales writes. “But fingers crossed that the rest of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season stays as dead as a doornail.”

Sara Hashemi is a science writer and fact-checker currently based in New York City. Her work has appeared in Sierra, The Body, Maisonneuve magazine and more.