Cancer Cases Are Expected to Nearly Double by 2050, Warns the WHO. Low-Income Countries Will Be Disproportionately Affected

In a new report, the World Health Organization predicts that new annual diagnoses will rise from about 20.6 million today to almost 35 million by 2050. The biggest increases will be in Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean region

Sara Hashemi | Daily Correspondent

July 13, 2026 11:44 a.m.

patient looking toward doctor pointing at an x-ray — Aging populations are a major driver of the predicted increase in cancer incidents. Maskot via Getty Images

While scientific advancements in the fight against cancer have improved the lives of millions of people, that progress hasn’t been spread evenly around the world. Inequities in health care will contribute to cancer cases nearly doubling in the next 25 years, warns the World Health Organization (WHO).

In the WHO’s Global Status Report on Cancer 2026 released on July 8, the global health agency estimates that the number of new diagnoses per year will jump from 20.6 million today to almost 35 million by 2050. That means about one in five people will develop cancer, and 92 percent of people will be affected by the disease, either through their own diagnosis or that of a loved one. The projections were calculated based on predicted changes in population growth, aging and the assumption that overall cancer rates will remain unchanged.

The new cases will disproportionately affect low-income countries, which have lower access to prevention, diagnosis, treatment and care. And the report, co-developed with the International Agency for Research on Cancer, finds that these gaps are widening.

“For years, the story told about cancer has been about scientific progress, new technologies, new treatment, new hope. That story is true, and it deserves to be told, but it’s not the whole story,” said André Ilbawi, the team lead for cancer control at the WHO, at a press conference presenting the report, per Kat Lay at the Guardian.

Take breast and childhood cancers, which the WHO considers to be emblematic of the extent of global inequalities. In high-income countries, where people are more likely to be diagnosed early, more than 85 percent of patients survive at least five years. In low-income countries, that number falls to 45 percent.

The report underscores the differences in access to diagnostics, medications and health coverage around the world. For example, in low- and middle-income countries, the availability of the top 20 priority cancer medicines ranges from 9 to 54 percent, compared with 68 to 94 percent in high-income countries, according to a survey of oncologists in 82 countries. About 197 million people around the world do not have access to radiation facilities, a critical cancer treatment.

“Cancer is a deeply personal disease that touches nearly all of us. But whether a person survives cancer should never depend on where they were born or what they earn,” says Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the WHO director-general, in a statement. “The inequities documented in this report are not inevitable; they are the consequence of choices, and they can be reversed through stronger and unified action.”

Did you know? Cancer is a leading cause of death

Cancer is the second most common cause of death around the globe; it leads to about ten million deaths each year, according to the statement. Cardiovascular disease is the first.

While all six regions defined by the WHO are expected to experience a rise in cancer incidence, the report estimates that the Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean regions will have the largest increases, at 125 percent and 110 percent, respectively.

Still, wealthier countries face their own issues. Among 22 high-income countries, the United States spends roughly twice as much on cancer care compared to nations that spend the median amount, according to a study published in 2022. U.S. national cancer care costs were estimated at almost $209 billion in 2020. However, the study found that cancer death rates in the U.S. are only slightly better than the average among the analyzed nations.

Canada, another high-income country, is already experiencing an increase in diagnoses. “I think it’s shocking because this is something that we’re seeing on a regional, provincial level and a national level,” Peter Stotland, a surgical oncologist at North York General Hospital, tells Prisha Dev at Canada’s Global News.

That’s largely because of an aging population that will likely lead to rises in lung, prostate and colorectal cancer cases, although diagnoses of the latter cancer have been rising among young people, he notes. “That’s going to put a lot of stress on the health care system.”

The report also cites aging populations as a main driver of the expected increase in cancer incidence; in 2024, more than half of global cases were in people age 65 and older. But modifiable risk factors like smoking tobacco, consuming alcohol and infections are also major contributors. In February, the WHO released a report that found that nearly four in ten new cancer diagnoses might be preventable.

The WHO calls on governments, international organizations, academic and private institutions, and the general public to work together to improve care for people affected by cancer. To do this, the agency recommends three overarching strategic shifts. Those include investment in health professionals who can help prevent and control cancer, a focus on the lived experiences of individuals affected by cancer and alignment of research and innovation with public health needs.

“The choices made and actions taken today will shape the cancer burden borne by future generations,” reads the statement. “By adopting a people-centered approach, making strategic and sustained investments and maintaining an unwavering commitment to equity, countries can reduce the cancer burden and improve outcomes for everyone, everywhere.”

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