Poll: Americans Predict Life in 2050
A joint poll from the Pew Research Center and Smithsonian magazine finds high hopes about science but anxiety about the environment
By T. A. Frail
Illustrations By Serge Bloch
Smithsonian magazine, August 2010
Within the next 40 years, most Americans believe, the United States will get the bulk of its energy from sources other than oil. Computers will converse like people. Cancer will be cured, and artificial limbs will outperform natural ones. Astronauts will land on Mars, and ordinary people will travel in space.
But that optimistic outlook on scientific achievement—documented in a nationwide opinion poll conducted by the Pew Research Center and Smithsonian—does not extend to the environment. A small majority of those polled said most of the United States would face severe water shortages by 2050. Six in ten said the oceans would be less healthy than they are now, and seven in ten foresaw a major energy crisis. Overall, fewer than half expected the quality of Earth’s environment to improve.
“If the U.S. has a national religion, the closest thing to it is faith in technology,” said Scott Keeter, director of survey research for the Pew Research Center. But “technology is not seen as a panacea for fixing the environment.”
The poll, occasioned by the magazine’s 40th anniversary and designed to assess attitudes about the next 40 years, also documented a drop in expectations. Americans remain generally positive, with 64 percent of those surveyed saying they were somewhat or very optimistic about what the next 40 years holds for them and their families; 61 percent said the same about the nation’s future. But in a Pew poll taken in May 1999, the questions garnered response rates of 81 percent and 70 percent, respectively.
Of course, the 1999 poll was taken at the height of the high-tech boom and on the eve of a new millennium. Since then, terrorists attacked the United States, the nation has engaged in two wars, the cost of living has outpaced wages and a recession has damaged the economy, among other things.
In the new survey, 58 percent of respondents said a world war would occur in the next four decades, 53 percent said terrorists would attack the United States with nuclear weapons, and the same majority said the nation would be less important in the world than it is now.
The Smithsonian/Pew poll was conducted April 21-26—just after the BP oil spill began in the Gulf of Mexico, but well before its magnitude became apparent. The survey included 1,546 adults in the United States reached by residential telephone or cellphone. The margin of error for the total sample is no more than plus or minus 4.5 points.
The documented belief in technological advancement extended from the laboratory (half said an extinct species would be resuscitated through cloning) to outer space (half said evidence of life would be found elsewhere in the universe) to the marketplace (a small majority said gasoline-powered cars would go out of production).
In an exception to the pessimism about the environment, the poll found a ten-point drop in the percentage of respondents who say the earth will get warmer: from 76 percent in 1999 to 66 percent in 2010.
That trend “is very consistent with data we've gathered on the issue of global warming more generally,” Keeter said. “There are many possible explanations, but one thing is quite clear: there is a strong partisan and ideological pattern to the decline in belief in global warming.” The vast majority of the change since 1999, he said, has occurred among Republicans and independents who lean Republican.
Because the U.S. population is expected to increase by more than 100 million by 2050, the poll asked about such growth. More than twice as many respondents (42 percent) said it would be more harmful than beneficial (16 percent). And there was ambivalence about immigration. Roughly a third of respondents said legal immigration had to be decreased to keep the economy strong, but a slightly higher proportion said legal immigration had to be kept at current levels; a quarter said it should be increased.
A clear majority expected race relations to improve (68 percent). Even more expected a Hispanic candidate to be elected president of the United States (69 percent). And 89 percent—the largest majority in the entire poll—said a woman would be elected president.
There was broad agreement that the cultural landscape, however else it changes over the next 40 years, will have less paper. More than six in ten respondents said they believed that paper currency and printed newspapers would disappear and personal letters sent by mail would be exceedingly rare.
And a hopeful outlook on the U.S. economy—56 percent said it would be stronger in 2050 than it is now—came with a caveat: 86 percent said Americans would have to work into their 70s before retiring. Those longer careers, in the respondents’ view, would not be accompanied by longer lives. Those who thought more people would live to be 100 (42 percent) were outnumbered by those who did not (50 percent).
T. A. Frail is a senior editor at Smithsonian.
Comments (14)
I still think the barrel roll level will be over 9000 in 2050, but it depends on how the OP turns out.
Posted by Christopher Poole on February 1,2011 | 08:36 PM
this makes no sence the world will advance but why play guesing games why not just let the world grow and worry about the world how it is now we still have unsolved problems 2011 lets advance now not wait till 2050 im only 13 and in the 8th grade but i have an opinion mine matters too thankyou
Posted by rebecca allen on January 5,2011 | 06:44 PM
Nov.1, 2010
We probably need to give David a break.Might he, perhaps, be in heaven, by then, playing a harp at Jesus' feet, or maybe with 72 dark-eyed virgins to boot?
Who knows?
However, David can always change his opinion as 2050 comes near and sees every negative opinion debunked.
Posted by regino ong on November 1,2010 | 09:09 AM
I agree entirely with G. Raseed. The current "snippets of news on TV or in the current daily newspapers" are shallow. The current political parties and their non-documented TV mud-sliggers represent < half of the US voting population. The scientfic community, physical, chemical, geological, medical, etc., plus the social, political, economic and academic communities continue to "press on", as reflected in their respected journals. Non-religious NGOs, the Gates Foundation, the relative success of the erradition Polio by the Rotory Polio Plus program, the work of individuals such as Mother Theresa, Greg Mortonsen in Eastern Pakistan as it borders with Eastern Afghanistan give an optimistic photo of the real future. I do not worry about the US position in the World. Pure demographics, economics, relative social and educational success programs will be the determinants as well as poor political leadership.
Posted by J.B.Millers on September 19,2010 | 08:12 PM
What a depressing view of our future !
Glad I won’t be around in 2050, but my grand-children will still be here. What a glum future for them.
Why can not the people of the world understand that responsible birth control and family planning can bring down our population to a very manageable number of people. How many remember the movie “Soylent Green “ ? That is where our future lies if we do not seriously work on controlling our numbers.
Some seem to think that this future will be OK, because our public education system is turning out a generation that can cast away the old ways of thinking and accept just about anything. Pretty scary !
Posted by Eugene Cole on September 16,2010 | 07:37 PM
If we use Thorium for our energy needs and just drive electric cars there will be no global warming or energy crisis. We can cure cancer, think of how bad smallpox or polio were. There is literally no problem we cannot solve.
Posted by Khephran on September 14,2010 | 01:21 AM
I truly believe that 2050 will preent us with lots of innovative changes. We will find a cure for some of the diseases of today (cancer, aids, heart and numerous others). The family structure will be quite different, as we know it today. The atmosphere will undergo some major changes and just as we've done for the past 50 years, we will continue to grow, pursue new ideas and methods of providing leadership and guidance for a better world and to certainly improve on what we currently have. Although I'm not so proud of our educational progress, there are a number of people who are proud parents, parents who desire a better life for their families,their Grandchildren, and great Grandchildren. Therefore, those among us who believe that we have a chance to make a difference, most of us a willing to make an effort to improve the quality of life for ALL people. Some Great people have come and gone, but prior to their departure, they made a difference, and left their mark. The mark that they left will be a beakon of light and hope for us to make additions and improvement on their great contributions. This group dedicated their lives to the improvement and well being of this world, and of course, there are some who immulate this group of persons. This will indeed have an impact on what 2050 will be like for each of us! I certainly am working on doing ALL that I can do to make it better! How about each of you?
Posted by Glenavary Rasheed on September 2,2010 | 09:35 AM
Apparently David has seen the great plague that will destroy the Earth in 2050. Tell me David, where did it originate? Where did it start?
Posted by Matthew on August 6,2010 | 05:47 PM
The United States of America will not exist in 2050.
NOTE: Above what he really means is an Alien civilization will make it self know to us before 2050 and this in turn will change all countries and all peoples of earth profoundly to the point that there will be no borders or countries left.
Technological civilization will have collapsed and largely ceased to exist by 2050.
NOTE: Out old technology as we knew it, because of the above we will leap forward into the visitors way of thinking.
The Human Population Bubble will have reached its apex and collapsed by 2050.
NOTE: Population is under control, through the help of Alien Civilizations and their technologies.
NOTE: AND THERE IS MORE.. THESE VISITORS ARE SO MANY THOUSANDS OF YEARS ADVANCED THAN WE ARE, AND THEY WILL SHOW TO BE AS HELPFUL AS THE VULCAN'S WERE TO EARTH AS IN THE STAR TREK SERIES. "THEY WILL BE HERE TO HELP NOT HURT"
etc.. etc.....
Posted by Angus on August 1,2010 | 09:26 PM
I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for "David" to justify his pessimistic views of the future. I can't imagine what basis they might have.
Let's take a different path and look back realistically over the past 40 years.
40 years ago, in 1970:
There was no such thing as the Internet. Computers were huge room-sized machines that were so delicate, they had to be shut up in cooled areas, and they did not have the computing power of the most of the PCs in use today.
Computers in your refrigerator or range? People would have laughed.
A hand held wireless telephone? Oh, people would have though you were speaking of "Dick Tracy's two way wrist radio" from the comics pages.
Ordinary people did not know anything about recycling. We picked up trash on the first Earth Day and felt pretty good about it; it would not have occurred to us to attempt reuse of the raw materials of cans and plastics which most of us recycle these days as daily habit.
Most of the cancer fighting drugs and treatments in use today were still researchers' dreams. Life expectancy from many forms of cancers and other diseases was much worse. I bet almost all of us have had a friend or loved one pass away in the 60s or 70s from diseases where people are surviving much longer today.
I could go on and on; my point is that science and technology have made great strides in the past 40 years. Certainly there is much to be done, but fearfulness and negativism is a sure path to failure. I will be happy to check in with "David" in 2050 and see whose vision was more accurate.
Posted by Gretchen on July 23,2010 | 04:02 PM
I would also like to see more from David!
Posted by Kate on July 9,2010 | 03:19 AM
David - I would be very interested in hearing the substantiation for your points of view. Thank you!
Posted by JSB on July 1,2010 | 06:22 PM
Trying not to sound too sarcastic, but I might figure out which color orange means what by 2050. Just a tad bit hard to decipher with such similar shades of one color.
Posted by aaron on June 28,2010 | 03:22 PM
If those are the expectations Americans have about the future the American people are going to be profoundly disappointed.
The United States of America will not exist in 2050.
Technological civilization will have collapsed and largely ceased to exist by 2050.
The Human Population Bubble will have reached its apex and collapsed by 2050.
The Earth will become a harsh inhospitable planet by 2050.
The auto and airline age will have long ended by 2050.
The human space exploration age will end by 2010.
Robotic space exploration will likely by 2020.
Medical science isn't going to solve the cancer problem, ever.
The computer - Internet age will end by 2050.
Peak Oil and Peak Fossil Fuels and Peak All-Energy will have occurred long before 2050.
Globalism will have ended forever long before 2050.
That's the future. Save a copy and you can verify it yourself should you have the misfortune of living until 2050.
Posted by David on June 27,2010 | 09:49 PM