Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Are Expected to Drop This Year, Partly Because of the Conflicts in Iran and Ukraine

The small decrease seems to stem partially from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a major global chokepoint for oil transportation. Scientists say that the decline will not last without the accelerated deployment of renewable energies

Sara Hashemi | Daily Correspondent

November 12, 2026 12:48 p.m.

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In 2020, humans hunkered down amid the Covid-19 pandemic, contributing to an unprecedented 7 percent decrease in global fossil fuel emissions, according to the Global Carbon Project, an international collaboration that releases annual reports on emissions trends. For the first time since then, emissions are expected to fall again, although to a lesser degree.

Global Carbon Project researchers predict that in 2026, countries will have emitted 42.1 billion U.S. tons of planet-warming carbon dioxide, a 0.4 percent decrease compared with the previous year. That’s partly because of growing solar and wind power, but also a surge in oil prices and supply chain issues sparked by the United States-Israel war with Iran.

The team described these findings in a preprint report, which has not been peer-reviewed, released on November 10 in the journal Earth System Data Science. Some of the scientists also published an analysis in the journal Nature Climate Change.

“A decline in fossil [carbon dioxide] emissions is encouraging, but a reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,” says report and study co-author Pierre Friedlingstein, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter in England, in a statement. “The long-term answer remains the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies. While renewables and electric vehicles are increasingly offsetting growth in energy demand, further acceleration is needed if global emissions are to peak and enter a sustained decline.”

According to Friedlingstein and colleagues’ calculations, emissions from oil and gas are projected to decline this year by 1.9 and 0.3 percent, respectively. However, that’s partially offset by a 0.6 percent rise in emissions from coal. (Burning coal generates more pollution than oil or gas.)

China emits around one-third of the world’s fossil emissions, making it the country that produces the most carbon dioxide. This year, its emissions declined overall, despite a small bump in coal pollution. That’s likely because China is leading the clean energy transition—it’s responsible for half of global emissions avoided due to renewable energy and electric vehicles.

In the United States, which follows China as a polluter, researchers predict a 1.3 percent decrease in emissions in 2026. That’s mainly thanks to a decrease in coal emissions following a spike last year due to high natural gas prices and cold weather.

Emissions from the rest of the world are projected to decline by 0.7 percent, driven largely by lower oil use.

“I would call it unexpected,” says study and report co-author Glen Peters, a climate scientist at the Center for International Climate Research in Norway, to Brad Plumer at the New York Times. “It’s pretty rare to see a drop in oil demand this big.”

The researchers call this an “energy shock,” a short-term response triggered by the war in Iran. The combat zone caused officials to close the Strait of Hormuz, located partially in Iranian waters and a major global chokepoint for oil transportation. That conflict, along with the Russia-Ukraine war, has caused prices for oil and gas to soar worldwide, forcing many countries to turn to domestic fossil or renewable energy sources, reports the Times.

The team emphasizes that this global decline in fossil emissions will not last without structural efforts to tackle emissions, such as deploying more electric vehicles along with solar and wind projects. In the Nature Climate Change paper, the authors estimate that these renewable energy strategies should offset 64 to 79 percent of increasing emissions from now through 2028. Still, that means the transition to clean energy isn’t yet robust enough to offset the anticipated rise in emissions from growing energy demands.

“There’s plenty of good news in terms of the rapid expansion of renewables,” says report co-author Mike O’Sullivan, a climate scientist at the University of Exeter, to Simmone Shah at Time. “But on a global scale, it’s completely inadequate.”

Sara Hashemi is a science writer and fact-checker currently based in New York City. Her work has appeared in Sierra, The Body, Maisonneuve magazine and more.