This is a load of rubbish!

Chairman Jensen, from the 1976 film "Network", had it spot-on when he explained "There's no such thing as countries anymore - the world is a college of corporations". The billionaire club, 500 strong in 2000 and 1200 strong today, show little regard for countries, preferring Pentagon global rule over democracies. As long as the U.S. dollar is backed by black gold, the status quo will continue its reign.

This can be true turkey has now the 7th strongest army of the whole world so maybe its true but lol poland im not Shore about that

I read the next decade. I didn't read next 100 years. Although some of the point, Friedman does about Turkey. Some are exaggerations. But I am educated in Germany. Years ago I said to my German friends that Turkey is a powerful country with respect its resources. They didn't believe me. Turkey didn't have good manager that was the Turkey's short coming. I believe that Friedman has an overall correct judgment about Turkey.

LOL, this must be another American. Turkey and Japan? Heck, Japan's economy is going down and Turkey doesn't have such a strong military that it can invade even Georgia. This weirdo has supported my claim that Americans are warmongers.

I have finished reading Mr Friedman's book just last month which was September of 2011. The book was written clearly in 2008. Just three-four years after the books prediction, many of his initial estimates seem to be clearly way off.

I still advise reading it thought because he is still on point in regards to some issues.

He is correct about the rise of Turkey. Turkey is currently the worlds 2nd fastest growing G20 economy after China. Additionally, Turkey has just announced its intention to domestically design and manufacture a 5th generation stealth fighter jet, which will definitely be leased it large numbers to its Middle Eastern and Muslim allies. Very few nations have a domestic fighter jet. USA, Russia, France, UK, China just to name a few. Also, Turkey is the only member of NATO which is increasing its military expenditures (vastly) while all other NATO members, including EU and US, who are in great financial turmoil, are in the process of cutting and slashing military expenditures. Additionally, Turkey is currently embarking on a massive military modernization program which will leave it with the most powerful conventional military by 2025 in the Middle East and South Europe.

Mr Friedman is clearly off in regards to the US. Japan, and China. Its pretty much official; the US is in irreversible decline. China is still growing at 10% a year and is the US's largest loaner. Chinese nationalism is stronger then ever and the likelihood that over 500 Million Chinese people are going to throw down their shovels and just over throw their government is not an impossibility- but very close to it. Japan according the Price Water House Coopers will continue to play a less role in terms of GDP output in the world and is clearly rocked by a host of domestic issues. China is clearly the future superpower of the world.

Yes space will most certainly be a battlefield in the future. No one in the 1800's could forecast an air war, so a space war will be very different than anyone can forecast. Maybe even one fighting enemies from other galaxies or beyond. That would make any war ever fought as primitive as cave men hurling rocks. Could those primitive beings ever imagine nuclear energy or iPads? Let's never say never to the idea of a space war with creatures beyond our forecasting capabilities.

Yes, there will be a war - but it will be unlike previous wars. This war will more be a result of mankind's destructive use of the planet and the resulting shortages of food and water with lots of flooding than anything else.

Poor Poland. They have had troubles since before WWII, but FDR and Stalin really screwed them after Hitler during the uprising of the Poles against the Nazi forces (Russie held back until most of the Poles had slaughtered before entering the fray).

If Turkey adopts the Islamic empire again for economic reasons, then it is in their best interest to remove any other super power from the Middle East. That is most likely the U.S.

What Friedman suggests is chaos. Any other power trying to claim a leadership role in the world will attempt to stir up America's national security because U.S. is the #1 influence. Heck, when Germany wanted to claim superpower status, they tried allying with Mexico to defeat any U.S. threat. That didn't work out, but alliances occur all the time and it is likely Turkey or Iran come up with new alliances to conquer the Middle East. China could very well ally with Turkey because China doesn't want an American superpower in the Eurasia (it is unlikely that Iran allies with other powers like China or Russia because it is so chaotic).

Japan depends on trade. Without raw materials and an efficient immigration policy, they suffer. This requires an aggressive strategy to reclaim their economic status that they have today. In 2050, they could very well be suffering as an island and will be seeking alternative ways to retrieve resources. China is the closest and most likely source. This will not go over well between the two economic giants.

I'd replace Turkey with Iran, and japan with China, and move the events several years earlier. After all, before the rise of the Turks and the Ottomans/Seljuks were the Persians, and before Japan was cohesive the Chinese had an empire. Only after that will Egypt, Turkey, then later Greece, and Japan, have resurgences in development. And then Mexico, probably around the same time.

It takes several generations of increasing tolerance to overcome any form of prejudice: racial, national, religious, cultural . . . . The Twentieth Century may be remembered as a time when people began to see more of themselves in peoples their ancestors viewed with ignorance and intolerance. It is a slow, painful process. Our American forefathers -- from day one -- exhibited every form of prejudice. All of these prejudices arrived with the immigrants that represent ALL (excepting the Native Americans) of our population. The hatred inherent in this thinking spawned Hitler, Josef Stalin, Idi Amin, Pol Pot, Slobodan Milošević, Osama bin Laden and Saddam Hussein, among others. In every case there was either a "hated" minority, a "hated" religion or "hated" way of life.
The USA is truly a melting pot, but the melting is a slow, slow process. Of all the countries of the world the population of the USA is the most heterogeneous and has constantly struggled to live up t5o the ideal that "all men are created equal. If or when WWIII happens it will undoubtedly be instigated by some deeply rooted form of ignorant hatred.

I was appalled by Friedman's apologistic stance on population growth. While by necessity we will makes incredible strides in the next few decades in energy, water and other efficiencies, his obvious ignorance of basic ecology is shocking for a man in his position. 90% of the creatures in the sea are gone, 50% of the coral reefs are destroyed, and when I was going to forestry school 40 years ago 50% of the topsoil in the U.S. had disappeared. The Colorado River's water has been over-appropriated a few decades. And on and on...point being, overpopulation is real and the biggest reason for impending global disaster; every single person on earth should be aware of this and no one more than those in government and university teaching positions. Time to man up!

While Friedman makes his predictions he typically overlooks the corrosive effects of domestic social injustice and economic hardship. We could remain a military super power while our society falls apart from within.

Corruption in government and business contributes to a growing cynicism in the population. How long will our society stand when our people have stopped believing in it?

How long can we survive if the rest of the world, disgusted by our lack of respect for human rights and our bullying tactics, turns it's back on us?

Given our behavior as of late, and given our backward status in the developed world as applies to social rights and justice one has to ask the question: Do we even have a right to survive, let alone dominate anything?

The writer is applying a 1910 form of strategic analysis here that's a century too late. If the current state of world affairs was only about territorial and industrial dominance and the control of shipping lanes, it might work. However, much of 21st century communication and commerce lies outside the scope of this rather Edwardian model.

To Hannibal Barca I say George Friedman's predictions are too short to be judged and analyzed. We have to read his book. Be careful, it could be an advertisement to the book.
Because the subjects he is talking about are astonishing, we have to see if he has details, absolutely about everything, from demographics, to economics, to changing interests and politics, we have to find these in the book.
Perhaps there is imagination in Friedman's statements, perhaps aspirations and arrogance, or prejudice or even symbolism. Who knows? The parameters are not five or fifty in this world but five hundred and even five thousand all contributing to drive the course of history, what are the right parameters to be taken into consideration to judge the future? Today's parameters may not be crucial in fifty years and new parameters may appear that we do jot foresee today. Who knew fifty years ago about AIDS? Who knew about cell phones or the collapse of the Soviet Union? All these were surprises and we have to admit it.
Predictions are predictions not assertions. It's a proposal.

The US, through borrowing money in the sale of government bonds and allowing foreign nations to purchase American companies, has linked the nations of the world to a unified future. What harm foreign nations bring to the US, they bring to themselves. The US needs stand ever vigilent, of course. The Japanese save great treasure in allowing the US to provide them with defense. Observe how the Japanese continues to allow Marine bases to be stationed in Okinawa.
I see radical Islamic forces continue to assault the West, upossibly using a dirty nuclear device. Who do we attack, just as in 9-11, when many Saudi fundamentalist are involved? I hope the US builds redundancy into all current and future weapon systems, allowing them to function in case navigation satellites are shot down. I believe the US should improve the military wing of NASA.

One thing is for America and Europe to engage in wars with other countries, happening in other countries, barely touching us. But to engage in war with each other? An attack on Poland means an attack on the whole union.

Japan and Turkey taking on the US? That thought makes me burst into laughter. I mean, seriously? That's like Mexico taking on France. Not gonna happen.


I believe the 21st century will come and go with no world wars, simply because there is no reason any world power would wish to engage in war with another. We've already learnt twice how harmful a war against other world power is for a country. It's much safer to fight countries who can't really fight back.

I agree with Vercengetorix here. Friedman is a showman, a P. T. Barnum of national security. He peddles his "intelligence" to businessmen whose ego needs include some kind of "inside" connection to the Big World of war and geopolitics. His thinking is a weird concoction of pre-nuclear age imperialism projected into the present and future. His predictions are ridiculous and irrelevant.

No way that Japan has the manpower necessary to even think of attempting to attack any other nation. Both China and both Koreas have a deep-rooted mistrust of the Japanese and are ALWAYS on the ready for an attack from them. Besides, with the Japanese government at the state it's in now, I don't see Japan coming together as a whole for a military expedition. In addition, the Japanese Island is very much divided by the regions and old rivalries. Having said that, I don't think either Koreas nor China has enough power to effectively rival the US on pure military terms. Economically, in 40years, it's very much possible. Turkey is definitely a dangerous ally. Yet our friends in Israel are there for the support that the US needs in case of a violent outcome.

Friedman's made a few controversial statements stemming from his most recent book (which I've read twice, now).

While I'm not completely convinced of some of the predictions, his narrative is very interesting. I'm not qualified to make any boldly oppositional statements, but am always on the lookout for good counter arguments.

I would urge any of you that find his arguments to be unconvincing to provide some additional reasons why (I discuss it here - http://bit.ly/predictinghistory). It will only help us all to tease out the most relevant stuff. Any hope that we might understand how and why humans/nations do what they do will be enriched by further discussion.

I hope, anyway.

I am unconvinced about Japan being a big player. Their population is aging, and not replacing themselves.

US a peripheral player in the first half of 20th century? Only from a myopic Euro-centric view. We started off the century taking the Phillippines and Puerto Rico, and meddled in Central and South America and the Pacific throughout the first few decades.

We were the deciding factor in ending WWI.

The stock market crash of 1929 reverberated around the world.

World War II was in the first half of the century.


Japan an emerging power? Where was Friedman the last 50 years?

The United States will become hostile to Turkey? Over the Mediterranean? Ridiculous. Aren't we more likely to be hostile with a dozen or so other countries?

Poland is afraid of Turkey??? Turkey going to sail around to the North Sea to attack Poland? Why? Ludicrous.

Surely Poland is 100 times more concerned with Russia/Germany than Turkey...who would have to get through half a dozen European countries before attacking Poland even if they wanted to go to war with them.

"If the Japanese and Turks were to take on the United States"...which is ludicrous, and won't happen, so I won't bother thinking about it anymore.

Mike, Mike, Mike. If it ever comes to a shooting war, the United States has more, and better assets to level a country. Half of our nuclear assets are in the water, they are called Ohio class. They carry the Trident II 5d SLBM. The missile can carry multiple warheads over 8000 KM. It would only take two, of the 14, subs we have to turn North Korea into a glowing spot on the map. BTW I pick North Korea as the most likely country to start a nuclear war, it is the only country that has leadership stupid and crazy enough. Well there is the whole India Pakistan thing, that would draw us into something bad too, but with our leadership and general flagellate feelings about war, the next conflict will probably work like the last two world wars, we will hem and haw, and then ride in at the last moment. What it takes for Americans to take the roll as the next Rome, is to get hurt. When they killed thousands in the Towers, we rolled into Iraq with something that made the Blitzkrieg look like a slow crawl. When they attacked Pearl Harbor, we vaporized two cities. When Columbia gets hurt, she hurts back, and goes for the throat. When push comes to shove, we have one thing that is better than any other nation on this planet, we are Americans.

This doesn't sound credible to me. A false flag attack by Israel could draw us into a war with Iran, that might esclate into WW3. Should that happen the American lifestyle will suffer an order of magnitude of contraction, high taxes, greatly reduced entitlements, expensive oil, food, water, energy... we can fall much faster than the author suggests.

Glad to see this author and book get some media play, as I believe it is in many ways insightful. An far greater appreciation for the primacy of navel power and, inevitably, outer space to our collective future is long overdue. He does reach a bit in extrapolating at this point the what the likely interrelationships between Poland, Turkey, Japan and Mexico (not mentioned in this interview piece) vis-a-vis the United States will look like starting in 40 years, but it is very important that the general public beginning thinking about the issues for themselves. Other, technology driven social changes will impact all these scenarios in highly unpredictable ways, but one of them very likely will be extended life span for most everyone in the first world. Another may be an enormous die off of people in some natural or demographically-driven disaster, for more likely to destroy the world's impoverished then those in advanced industrial societies. In any case, many of the readers are actually going to see whether or not Friedman and others guessed correctly, and will be living the consequences in their own and their families fortunes. Hope we get it right.

Too many unknown factors can determine America's welfare and future events, not the least being December 2012.

A good article. I would hate for us to be at odds with Japan and Turkey. Two great allies right now. And I have met many Polish troops in my travels around and found them to be a very good fighting force, and an ally the US should stand with FIRMLY.

If only we could all just realize how small out world is and that we need to get along and solve problems as a species, not as nations.

Great article, I will have to pick up the book. Im not fond of predicting war, perhaps in the future countries with smaller populations and optimal resources may feel threatend by large sea fairing nations to come.

So I ask is one of our futures a castle and moat inland super city?

I write this as a first generation American, my dad emigrating from Poland sometime in the '00s of the 20th. century.

Poland has good reason to fear Germany and Russia. Look what both did to Poland during W.W.II. Churchill was the only one to oppose Roosevelt's decision on his vote to give Poland's control to Russia. And, way back, Lithuania, Russia and Germany made a pact to, "wipe Poland off of the face of the earth. Vilna, the town of my father's birth, is now called Villnius, and belongs to Lithuania.

I do fear for Poland; she has gotten it from all sides down through her history, just because she lacked faith in her own leaders, and allowed foreiners to run the nation.

And, of course, Germany is always a nation to recon with. Always one of the most technologically advanced nations, she may however have met her match in Japan.