Not all of the world's treasures are kept in museums. Cultural heritage sites—historic cities, monuments and archaeological sites—inspire awe and show the best of humanity throughout time.
Yet cultural heritage sites around the world face a host of impending threats, and perhaps none seems more inevitable than rising seas fueled by melting ice caps. “It’s one of the most dramatic effects of climate change,” says May Cassar, a professor of sustainable heritage at University College London.
While the drama of submerged landmarks piques the artistic imagination, it’s a harsh reality that both scientists and local communities will soon have to cope with. Current projections suggest that by 2100, sea levels may rise by six feet on average. Earlier this summer, researchers reported that sea-level rise is speeding up, and according to estimates released this month, burning off Earth’s remaining fossil fuels would completely melt the Antarctic ice sheet and raise sea levels by 190 feet.
If things continue unchanged, many coastal sites of historical and cultural significance will be underwater. “We have to deal with that knowledge and make some prioritizations,” says Adam Markham of the Union of Concerned Scientists. International organizations like the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) compile lists of important sites, but determining what’s at most risk and what’s worth saving is no easy task.
Last year, climate scientists Anders Levermann and Ben Marzeion modeled how sea-level rise might play out at 720 UNESCO World Heritage sites. If global temperatures rise only moderately—by three degrees Celsius—over the next 2,000 years, their models suggest that 136 of these sites could be underwater, including the Tower of London and the Sydney opera house. However, predicting this worst-case scenario in the short term is a bit of a crapshoot.
Further complicating matters, sea-level rise can have other unintended impacts. Flood levels and frequencies may increase, and storm surges might be higher. That’s a problem because "a single storm can completely destroy a site," explains Tom Dawson, an archaeologist at St. Andrews University in Scotland.
Still, storms can also have beneficial effects. "What’s more likely is that a storm will do some damage but actually expose something in the process,” Dawson says. On Scotland's coasts, storms have revealed ancient dwellings and even skeletons of past inhabitants.
Coastal erosion is a more chronic issue that rising seas could exacerbate. “It’s not new, but it has gotten a lot worse. We’re kind of powerless against it,” says Torben Rick, an archaeologist at the National Museum of Natural History. Most coastal archaeological sites aren’t famous or flashy but contain evidence of how people lived thousands of years ago. “With every bit that erodes away, we’re losing a piece of cultural heritage,” says Rick.
On the plus side, the impending demise of some sites has spurred new levels of creativity in efforts to preserve and record them—though photographs, excavations, ground-penetrating radar and land and aerial surveys. A startup called CyArk aims to create 3D digital blueprints of 500 heritage sites using lasers in the next five years.
Successful efforts will depend on local communities. “The focus is typically on the monument. But the focus also needs to be on the people that surround that monument,” says Cassar. Sea levels may displace a lot of coastal communities, but helping them survive and preserve heritage extends the life of those sites as well.
Ultimately, communities will have to make tough decisions about whether to try to preserve, move or abandon these areas. Here are ten sites that could face a watery fate:
The first permanent English settlement in the Americas sits right about at sea level in the Tidewater region of Virginia—an iconic trove of U.S. history. Over the years, Jamestown has yielded countless artifacts from pottery to weaponry. In 2013, archaeologists turned up the remains of a young girl who had been cannibalized by starving colonists in 1609. Most recently, researchers unearthed skeletons belonging to four of the colony’s prominent leaders.
At the time of settlement, Jamestown would have been situated much further inland than the beachfront on which it sits today. While erosion from flooding and storm surges eat away at the shoreline, the land itself is sinking. One corner of the original fort has already been lost to the elements. Waters that encroach on the site do so at roughly twice the global rate, and by some estimates, water level could reach six feet by the end of this century.
Archaeologists have already excavated most of the original fort in anticipation that the site’s bounty might slip beneath the sea. The National Park Service also put in an underwater wall of rocks to help break waves before they hit the shore, reducing erosion. There’s discussion of building a seawall as well.