Elon Musk, the Rocket Man With a Sweet Ride
The winner of the Smithsonian Ingenuity Award for technology hopes to launch a revolution with his spaceship and electric car
- By Carl Hoffman
- Smithsonian magazine, December 2012, Subscribe
(Page 3 of 3)
In Musk’s world, we’ve broken our dependence on fossil fuels and imprisonment on Earth itself. “The question,” he says, “isn’t ‘Can you prove that we’re making the planet warmer?’ but ‘Can you prove we’re not?’ And you can’t. Think of that famous experiment about children and gratification. The kid who can delay his gratification for the cupcake for five minutes will be the more successful kid. That’s us, but we’re the unsuccessful kid. We will run out of oil and we’re engaged in this dangerous experiment of pushing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. It’s crazy.” For Musk, the Tesla Model S and the Falcon 9 are simply the first steps toward ending that “experiment.”
Although the highest-priced Model S has a range of 300 miles, it still takes nine hours to recharge on a standard 240-volt electrical hookup, making your classic long family drive impractical, and the single largest barrier to widespread electric vehicle use. But in late October, Tesla planned to open in California the first six of a planned network of 100 electrical filling stations around the U.S., dubbed “superchargers,” which pump electricity at 90 kilowatts, adding 250 miles to the highest-priced Model S’s battery (the lowest-cost model doesn’t yet have this capability) in one hour. Where the filling stations can be solar powered, that means zero fossil fuels and zero emissions. Drive in, grab lunch, and in 30 minutes you’re cruising with another 120-odd miles of range. With an electric vehicle that has a reasonable range and rapid filling stations available, the barriers to electric cars fall; as more people get them, the laws of mass production dramatically reduce their price. Bingo; why would anyone have a car that costs 70 bucks to fill up and pollutes the planet?
Ditto with rockets. Their design and successful launch is, in fact, rocket science, and sending 10,000 pounds into low-Earth orbit, docking with the ISS and returning to Earth are incredibly difficult, hence Lopez-Alegria’s use of the word “miracle.” Yet it has been done many times before over the past 50 years. “It’s a major accomplishment,” says curator Launius, “but it’s technically insignificant. Elon himself has made a big fact that he’s not pioneering technology but leveraging what is already known.” Again, it comes down to scale. The more rockets he can build and launch, the cheaper they’ll be. These first flights to the ISS are just the means, the U.S. subsidizing the development of low-cost space technology so we can burst out into the cosmos.
“If our objective is to plant colonies on Mars and be an interplanetary species,” says Launius, “well, there are folks at NASA who believe you can’t say that with a straight face, that it rises to a giggle factor you can’t defend,” even if they dream about it. For NASA, commercial rocket companies like SpaceX are simply a cheaper, more reliable way to ensure access to the ISS for the next decade. And even that hasn’t come without an internal struggle, as old-line space apostles have argued that access to space must be a fundamental national priority and that only the U.S. government can be trusted to send humans, which Musk plans to do in the next three years. “There are people who are reluctant to look at commercial space, especially from the Apollo era,” says Lopez-Alegria, “and they say guys like Musk don’t know what they don’t know, and I want to agree—my whole life was spent in the government. But SpaceX and other companies are proving that hypothesis wrong.”
For Musk, the NASA flights are the beginning of a crazy, colossal dream that he can build and launch so many rockets that they’ll become cheap, and as reliable as an airplane flight. “We need to launch multiple rockets a day and get the cost of going to Mars to about what a middle-class house in California costs now,” he says.
Will that ever happen? Will Tesla ever rival General Motors and will Musk’s Falcon 9 pave the way to Mars and beyond? There’s no way to know, of course. Musk has to make and sell a lot of cars to a lot of fickle consumers. And even if he can send humans to space and launch a lot of rockets, that may not get us anywhere. “The fundamental challenge,” says Launius, “is to get to and from low-Earth orbit with some relative ease and with safe, reliable and less expensive methods. The more people who work on that problem the more likely we’ll solve it.”
In the end, though, the biggest issue with making us interplanetary, Launius believes, isn’t even rocket technology but the biomedical issues of long-term living in a place with low gravity and high radiation. Even space missions of ten days have radical effects on the human body, including changes in muscle mass and bone density, “and figuring out how to solve that problem is profound,” says Launius. “What happens when you carry a child to term in one-sixth or one-third of the Earth’s gravity? We don’t even know the questions to ask.”
Musk acknowledges those issues, but fiercely believes everything is solvable. “The goal of SpaceX has been to advance technology to create a self-sustaining colony on Mars. We have a long way to go and this is really hard work. It’s the most difficult thing humanity has ever done, but also the most interesting and inspiring. Do you want a future where you’re confined or reaching toward the stars? To me, the former is really depressing and I can’t wait to go. If I live 20 years, I think it’ll happen.”
Musk gives a little nod, a trademark head bob that says that’s the way it is, and swivels back to his computer. It’s eight o’clock at night and up there, somewhere, his Dragon capsule is orbiting overhead. It’s time to tune out and return to Elon’s world.
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Comments (10)
At bottom, the great contributions of the Elon Musks of the world are (1) that they buy us new alternatives and (2) that they keep those innovations conspicuous enough, long enough, so that we have a decent chance of experiencing the benefits they portend. "Musks" are the antidotes to the toxin Nicolo Machiavelli describes in "The Difficulty of Change." Capital is finite, so what goes into technologies whose twilight is at hand is squandered (except for marginal salvage). Carbon extraction dependent technologies are probably such "sunk" costs in both senses of the word. What's spent yields transient good, enduring harm, and — worst of all — negates capital that could have brought less problematic permanent successor technologies into being sooner. The world's Elon Musks are are teachers. We pay a huge tuition—if we cut their classes—to the Business Office at the School of Hard Knocks.
Posted by Stan Thompson on November 29,2012 | 11:45 PM
Elon Musk has, no doubt, a cadre of super-bright understudies. If it somehow comes to his attention that beginning of the transition of the world's diesel railways to renewably-sourced hydrogen hybrid (hydrail) technology happens just one year sooner, (over the 21-year interval it would take to for the change) would keep about 3 billion barrels of crude in the ground and about 215 million tons of carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, he might just say, "Hey guys...anyone want a go at this one?" ... and climate change could slow down a bit. Hydrail is not rocket science ... but it can make a material difference in climate impact.
Posted by Stan Thompson on November 26,2012 | 09:01 AM
Elon's comments seem to raise the ire of some people higher than his company does it's rockets. He doesn't though, as far as I can tell, make thoughtless insults like many of the detracting commentators that I've read in forums. He seems to me a simple genius with drive and I use "simple" as a positive trait. Mostly free of pseudo-sophisticated tactfulness he say what he thinks and unlike most of the criticisms of him and/or his company he speaks from some knowledge. It seems to me that he isn't usually against what others want to do with their time and money. He just isn't going to "waste" his on it and says why. Elon Musk wants Mars during his active life, not lay a ground work towards it that a later generation can utilize. He wants to see the world cooking with solar power and driving on electrons within a generation. He's in a hurry. I also keep running across the opinion that somehow he's an irrational dreamer or a con man. These opinions are patently absurd and beneath rational consideration. I honestly believe that he'd like to see Europe, Russia, and ULA make rockets that can compete with his (tempered with self interest)and some of his comments are made as an attempt at a backhanded positive criticism. I don't think that it matters in the long run. He's made a name for history I think and possibly sparked a momentum that'll do great things for the human race, barring politics.
Posted by Les Roark on November 26,2012 | 03:20 AM
I have a dream. In it, Elon Musk has a cadre of super-bright understudies. It somehow comes to Musk's attention that, if the beginning of the transition of the world's diesel railways to renewably-sourced hydrogen hybrid (hydrail) technology happened just one year sooner, then (over the 21-year interval it would take to for the change) about 3 billion barrels of crude would stay in the ground and about 215 million tons of carbon dioxide would not enter the atmosphere. Musk says, "Hey guys...anyone want a go at this one?" And climate change slows down a bit. Hydrail is not rocket science, but it can be more immediate.
Posted by Stan Thompson on November 25,2012 | 05:53 PM
Congratulations to Elon Musk! He truly deserves this award for Innovation, and especially for his courage in the face of many critics. I look forward to the day I can afford a Tesla electric car! Sincerely, Robert Gibbons Washington NC
Posted by Robert Gibbons on November 25,2012 | 09:16 AM
> (see National Treasure, p. 42) What is this, dead tree hour? Looks like Smithsonian needs an internet editor.
Posted by Foo on November 23,2012 | 10:02 AM
Jim; I would love for congress to cut off the EV tax credit as that should save us about $225 million a year. But then lets cut the loop holes and prefential leases for the oil companies at the same time to save 4X that. I would also like to see us cut the special funds for the 3 aircraft carriers now in the Middle East. Which of course pales in comparison to the $1 trillion we spent in Iraq. If we make oil pay for it's true costs there would be no need for EV incentives. Until then let's not cut off our hope for the future.
Posted by David Hrivnak on November 22,2012 | 08:44 PM
"The capsule carrying 1,000 pounds of cargo is in orbit" "... a small start-up company’s rocket and space capsule, which cost roughly one-tenth of a space shuttle launch to launch..." The cargo capacity for the space shuttle was 50,000 pounds. Musk lifts 2% of the shuttle's capacity to orbit while costing 10% as much. How exactly is this a bargain?
Posted by Frank Weigert on November 22,2012 | 06:28 AM
Over the last week week, Elon Musk has insulted Apple, the European Space Agency and called for the government to place an "emissions tax" on internal combustion engine powered vehicles. Such a tax hike would, of course, not apply to his very expensive Tesla electric autos. Musk's demand for an emissions tax is clearly a move aimed at making his taxpayer subsidized electric cars more competitive. Musk apparently owns enough Washington politicians, including the one who lives at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, to continue to fearlessly make outrageous statements and predictions without worrying about Congress cutting off his entitlements. If you think Musk only intends to hep cut carbon emissions by calling for that tax, you need to go back to school. What's next from this manipulative and opportunistic "evil genius"? Perhaps he will move on to something like this: "Gentlemen, I give you the Vulcan. The world's most powerful subterranean drill. So powerful it can penetrate the earth's crust, delivering a 50 kiloton nuclear warhead deep into the liquid hot core of the planet upon detonation every volcano on earth will erupt." The Musk Cult continues to expand and gain power, thanks to the journalists and business tech commentators who are easily mesmerized by lofty talk.
Posted by Jim McDade on November 21,2012 | 07:58 AM
You claimed the high end version of the Model S goes from 0-60 in 5.5 seconds. In reality, it goes from 0-60 in 4.4 seconds... Did the oil industry told you to lie about that or what ;p Wouldnt want to make the wasteful gasoline cars look bad right!
Posted by You made a typo on November 21,2012 | 06:00 AM