Chronicling the Ice
Long before global warming became a cause célà¨bre, Lonnie Thompson was extracting climate secrets from ancient glaciers. He finds the problem is even more profound than you might have thought
- By J. Madeleine Nash
- Smithsonian magazine, July 2007, Subscribe
(Page 4 of 6)
The Asian monsoon created the modern-day river basins whose fertile flood plains sustain about half the world's population. Many scientists believe the monsoon also helped cool the planet. Ever so slowly, the rains removed carbon dioxide, the heat-trapping gas most responsible for global warming, from the atmosphere. When the gas is dissolved in rainwater, it turns into an acid, which then reacts with rock to form more stable carbon compounds. In this fashion, says Boston University paleoclimatologist Maureen Raymo, the Asian monsoon set the stage for the succession of ice ages that started about three million years ago.
Now it is becoming clear that such natural mechanisms for sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide are being overwhelmed by the burning of fossil fuels—coal, oil and natural gas. There is more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere today than at any time during at least the past 650,000 years, based on analyses of the chemical composition of air bubbles entrapped in Antarctic ice over that time. By the end of this century, carbon dioxide levels could easily double, and many scientists expect global warming to disrupt regional weather patterns—including the Asian monsoon.
There is no question that big changes are already afoot in the Tibetan Plateau. In 2004, Chinese glaciologists published a survey of their country's 46,298 ice fields, the majority of which lie in Tibet. Compared with the 1960s, the area covered by glaciers shrank by more than 5 percent, and their volume by more than 7 percent, or more than 90 cubic miles. That much ice holds enough water to nearly fill Lake Erie. Moreover, the rate of ice loss is speeding up. At present, Yao tells me, the glaciers near Naimona'nyi are drawing back by eight million square feet per year, five times their rate of retraction in the 1970s.
The loss of high-mountain ice in the Himalayas could have terrible consequences for people living downstream. Glaciers function as natural water towers. It's the ice melt in spring and fall that sends water coursing down streams and rivers before the summer monsoon arrives and after it leaves. At present, too much ice is melting too fast, raising the risk of catastrophic flooding; the long-term concern is that soon there will be too little ice during those times when the monsoon fails, leading to drought and famine.
Worldwide, a massive loss of ice, a long-predicted consequence of global warming, is now in progress, from Alaska to Patagonia, from the Rockies to the Alps. Even more disturbing, the great ice sheets that cover West Antarctica and Greenland are showing signs of instability. The mile-deep Greenland ice sheet, Thompson notes, contains enough water to raise sea level by something like 20 feet, and while neither he nor anyone else expects all that ice to disappear suddenly, it's clear that its accelerating loss will contribute to rising oceans.
Speaking out in the early 1990s, Thompson was one of the first scientists to call the public's attention to glaciers and ice fields as barometers of climate change. He has continued to do so in the years since, reinforcing his message with hard data and before-and-after photographs of disappearing ice fields. Today he has a lot of company. As temperatures push ever higher over the next century, the latest United Nations report warns, the loss of ice can be expected to continue, reconfiguring coastlines and ecosystems on a global scale.
Thompson is starting the arduous climb to the drilling camp, located high on an ice-filled corridor between two glaciers. He moves steadily but slowly, drawing his breath in ragged gasps. Every now and then he pauses to bend at the waist, as if taking a bow. It's a trick, he says, for easing the burden that high altitude places on the heart.
He stops at the top of a tower of rocks deposited by a past advance of ice. Directly below is the glacier he plans to climb. "It'll be a walk in the park," Thompson says, panting. Shortly, he moves off, clambering across the ice-mauled debris that limns the glacier's course. "That's what you said last time," I yell after him.
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