The Photographs That Prevented World War III
While researching a book on the Cuban missile crisis, the writer unearthed new spy images that could have changed history
- By Michael Dobbs
- Smithsonian magazine, October 2012, Subscribe
(Page 2 of 2)
In addition to bringing the viewer back into the moment, the photographs offer insights into the gaps in American intelligence-gathering—instances in which the CIA misinterpreted or simply ignored information it collected. One example is the photograph of a munitions bunker near the town of Managua, south of Havana.
“No apparent change,” CIA analysts wrote in an October 27 report. “Vines have grown on fence in some sections.” From Soviet sources, we now know that the bunker—which the CIA believed hid conventional munitions—was used to store warheads for the tactical FROG missiles that could have been used to destroy an American invading force.
A more ominous gap concerned the location of the warheads for the 36 medium-range missiles capable of hitting Washington and New York. The whereabouts of the warheads was critical, because the missiles could not be fired without them. Kennedy asked for the information repeatedly, but the CIA was never able to answer him definitively. By the second week of the crisis, the photo interpreters had concluded that the warheads were probably stored in a closely guarded facility near the port of Mariel. But by analyzing the raw intelligence film and interviewing former Soviet military officers, I discovered that they were wrong. The one-megaton warheads (each 70 times more powerful than the bomb that destroyed Hiroshima) were actually stored some 20 miles away near a town called Bejucal, a few miles south of the Havana airport. The CIA—and, by extension, Kennedy—was completely unaware of this at the time.
The giveaway was the presence of specially configured vans that were used to transport the warheads from Bejucal to the Sagua La Grande missile site starting on the night of October 26, as the crisis was approaching its height. The CIA analysts noted six strange-looking vans at the Bejucal site, but failed to understand their significance.
I was intrigued to learn that the Bejucal facility had been photographed on several Blue Moon missions. At the beginning of the crisis, a CIA briefer had even told Kennedy that it was the “best candidate” for a nuclear storage bunker and was marked for “further surveillance.” But the photo interpreters lost interest in Bejucal because of the seemingly lax security arrangements there. They noted that the site was protected by a single fence, rather than the multiple fences used to protect similar installations in the United States and the Soviet Union. As it turned out, the lack of security proved to be the best security of all, from the Soviet point of view.
What might have happened had the CIA interpreted the intelligence correctly? Had Kennedy known where the warheads were stored, he might have been tempted to order a pre-emptive strike to seize or disable them. The mission could have been a success, strengthening his hand against Khrushchev, or it could have gone badly wrong, resulting in firefights between Americans and the Soviets guarding the nuclear weapons. We will never know. As it was, Kennedy, armed with only partial intelligence about what the Soviets were doing, refrained from taking pre-emptive action.
At the same time, the photo interpreters did provide Kennedy with information that shaped his response to Khrushchev at several points. On October 26, they correctly identified a nuclear-capable FROG missile launcher photographed by Navy pilot Gerald Coffee the day before. But their most important contribution was their day-to-day assessment of the combat-readiness of the different missile sites. As long as the president knew the missiles were not yet ready to fire, he had time to negotiate.
That changed on October 27—Black Saturday—when the CIA informed Kennedy for the first time that five out of six medium-range missile sites on Cuba were “fully operational.” (The analysts reached this conclusion by monitoring progress made on the missile sites, even though they still did not know where the warheads were.) The president now understood that time was running out, and the confrontation had to be brought to a close. That evening, he delegated his brother Robert, his confidant and the attorney general, to meet with Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin at the Justice Department and warn that U.S. military action was imminent. He also offered Khrushchev a couple of carrots: If he pulled his missiles out of Cuba, the United States would promise not to invade the island and would also withdraw similar medium-range missiles from Turkey. Fortunately for humanity, Khrushchev accepted the deal.
But there was still an important role left for the pilots to play. For the next three weeks, they monitored the Soviet withdrawal from Cuba. Not until mid-November, once Kennedy was confident that Khrushchev was keeping his side of the bargain, did he finally call off the low-altitude reconnaissance.
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Comments (8)
Great article - I found the comment interesting by @paul henkemeyer does anyone know if it is the same Gerald Coffee? sounds like an additional interesting story there!
Posted by Kent Byers on January 29,2013 | 02:53 AM
As a soldier with the 1st Armored Division having moved to Georgia from Texas in preparation to invade Cuba I remember well an officer reminding me that we were probably the primary target of the first Russian/Cubam missiles. I was grateful that Kennedy handled the situation so well, but the officers were very disappointed that we would not see 'action.' Kennedy ended the Soviet threat 50 years ago. The Soviets were never respected around the world after that.
Posted by William Bergmann on October 30,2012 | 05:54 PM
Late in the article, Dobbs mentions Navy pilot Gerald Coffee who photographed FROG missle launchers. Isn't this the same Gerald Coffee who was shot down over North Vietnam in 1966, flying, ironically, an RA5C reconassince jet? He was a POW for the next seven years and wrote the book "Beyond Survival".
Posted by paul henkemeyer, JOCM, USN ret. on October 14,2012 | 12:25 PM
Fortunately for which humanity? Certainly not the ones who had to flee their homeland as new regime put a price on their heads, or millions of the poor were made only more so. The strengthened power of communism So.. Amer. resulted in brutal repression and millions of deaths. The continued power the USSR enjoyed because of the appearance of a win against freedom allowed that regime to continue to repress its people. "Fortunately", was only for a few.
Posted by Chappy on October 10,2012 | 02:34 PM
"A more ominous gap concerned the location of the warheads for the 36 medium-range missiles capable of hitting Washington and New York. The whereabouts of the warheads was critical, because the missiles could not be fired without them. Kennedy asked for the information repeatedly, but the CIA was never able to answer him definitively. By the second week of the crisis, the photo interpreters had concluded that the warheads were probably stored in a closely guarded facility near the port of Mariel. But by analyzing the raw intelligence film and interviewing former Soviet military officers, I DISCOVERED THAT THEY WERE WRONG. THE ONE-MEGATON WARHEADS …WERE ACTUALLY STORED SOME 20 MILES AWAY NEAR A TOWN CALLED BEJUCAL, a few miles south of the Havana airport. The CIA—and, by extension, Kennedy—was completely unaware of this at the time." --Michael Dobbs "...Third, by Oct. 27, when the majority of President John F. Kennedy's military and civilian advisors favored an attack on Cuba, THE SOVIETS HAD ALREADY DELIVERED 162 NUCLEAR WARHEADS TO THE ISLAND AND HAD STORED THEM AT A DEPOT AT BEJUCAL, southwest of Havana..." --"Fanaticism: The Nature Of The Danger We Face" By Robert S. McNamara And James G. Blight, Los Angeles Times, Sunday, October 28, 2001. Apparently former Defense Secretary Robert McNamara knew about the storage of nuclear warheads at Bejucal decades before reporter Michael Dobbs self-congratulatory claim that he alone has discovered the depot via his own photo analysis and interviews with Soviet military officers.
Posted by Glenn Merritt on October 9,2012 | 12:12 PM
Hey James! i never heard about this. GR
Posted by James Field on October 6,2012 | 04:13 AM
Hey Gabe! I never heard about this. Very interesting. GR
Posted by Gabe Field on October 6,2012 | 04:10 AM
An very interesting article. Part two could be a modern archeology look at the same Cuban sites in 2012. What became of the sites and of the structures? I certainly would like to do the photography.
Posted by Mathew Hargreaves on October 3,2012 | 11:54 PM